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6 retained episodes matching “source:"Macro Hive"”.

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Macro Hive

Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia's AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss: AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics

Macro Hive

Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China's Swing Power

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

Macro Hive

Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes

Dominique Dwor- Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Macro Hive

Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil

Macro Hive

Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Locali s ation Thesis Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble" The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding) Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts The Iran War and American Exceptionalism The Fed

Macro Hive

Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin S

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