New York is preparing to enforce its sweeping AI safety law, requiring major developers like OpenAI and Anthropic to register, disclose safety practices, and report critical incidents or face fines.
When frontier AI labs go public, ordinary people’s investments and pensions become tied to their valuations and stock prices. While excessive regulation could undermine a firm’s growth, catastrophic accidents caused by inadequate safety measures could do the same—and wipe out shareholder value.
Has U.S. monetary policy actually improved over time? Or was the apparent success of the modern Federal Reserve mostly the result of more favorable economic conditions and better luck? In this post, we summarize our paper, * which develops a framework for comparing monetary policy across different economic environments. Our approach asks how close policy came to the best response given the economic conditions and shocks policymakers faced. Applying this framework to 150 years of U.S. monetary history, we find that meaningful improvements in monetary policy occurred only in the last thirty years. Most of the gains reflect, among other developments, substantially better responses to financial shocks and supply shocks.
