Australia said it plans to establish an AI safety regulator after an OpenAI agent breached a government health-department website in June.
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On the map → Taiwan Strait
This paper studies the effects of maritime chokepoint disruptions on U.S. inflation and their implications for monetary policy.
On the map → Ukraine · Black Sea
Has U.S. monetary policy actually improved over time? Or was the apparent success of the modern Federal Reserve mostly the result of more favorable economic conditions and better luck? In this post, we summarize our paper, * which develops a framework for comparing monetary policy across different economic environments. Our approach asks how close policy came to the best response given the economic conditions and shocks policymakers faced. Applying this framework to 150 years of U.S. monetary history, we find that meaningful improvements in monetary policy occurred only in the last thirty years. Most of the gains reflect, among other developments, substantially better responses to financial shocks and supply shocks.
Kalshi: Hike 25bps — the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their Dec 2026 meeting · 86% ·
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Kalshi: Bitcoin below $70,000.00 — BTC trimmed mean below $70k by Nov 30 2026 23:59ET · 59% ·
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