Top News

US consumer prices rise above expectations in October

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.6% in September.

Prediction markets:
KalshiWill the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026?
Above 3.7%: 65% · Closes · Quote captured
Social commentary: Julia CoronadoBluesky, Edward HarrisonBluesky

Oil rises from two-month low as Hormuz shipping attacks offset Iran truce hopes

On the map → Strait of Hormuz

Prediction markets:
KalshiWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2027?
Hormuz traffic normal before Nov 1, 2027: 51% · Closes · Quote captured
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
2% · Closes · Quote captured

United States

Fed’s Paulson calls for gradual rate hikes amid ongoing high inflation

AnalysisFederal Reserve Bank of New YorkNov 9 at 4:00 AM PST

Has U.S. Monetary Policy Really Improved? A 150‑Year Perspective

Has U.S. monetary policy actually improved over time? Or was the apparent success of the modern Federal Reserve mostly the result of more favorable economic conditions and better luck? In this post, we summarize our paper, * which develops a framework for comparing monetary policy across different economic environments. Our approach asks how close policy came to the best response given the economic conditions and shocks policymakers faced. Applying this framework to 150 years of U.S. monetary history, we find that meaningful improvements in monetary policy occurred only in the last thirty years. Most of the gains reflect, among other developments, substantially better responses to financial shocks and supply shocks.

Social commentary: Conor SenBluesky

ECB’s rate path hinges on how far inflation spreads, Lane says

Greg MichalowskiAnalysisinvestingLiveNov 10 at 9:59 AM PST

ECB’s Lane says the bar for directional rate guidance is high

Comments from the ECB’s Lane on inflation and policy guidance crossed the wires. We put a very high premium on consensus, would be difficult with dots. I would put high bar on directional forward guidance now. Important that ECB has an instrument for multiple equilibriums on bond market. Informative that underlying inflation hasn’t moved yet, it means it’s the usual delayed response. Underlying inflation is a guide to 1-year-ahead inflation. Energy prices already reversing, if that continues you can see headline inflation falling and underlying inflation rising. People should be looking out for whether inflation is coming in stronger or weaker than projections. Analysis Lane is keeping his options open on rates. The barometer for traders is how inflation comes in relative to the ECB’s projections, especially if headline and underlying inflation start moving in opposite directions. Lower

OpenAI, Anthropic face new oversight as New York’s AI safety law takes effect

Angela Huyue ZhangAnalysisProject SyndicateNov 10 at 3:32 AM PST

Will Anthropic’s IPO Lead to Better AI Regulation?

When frontier AI labs go public, ordinary people’s investments and pensions become tied to their valuations and stock prices. While excessive regulation could undermine a firm’s growth, catastrophic accidents caused by inadequate safety measures could do the same—and wipe out shareholder value.

Coming soon

MacroDigest for iPhone

We're building a native app for topic clusters, markets and saved reading.

About the app

Podcasts

All episodes

Conferences

IAPP Europe Congress

Brussels · International Association of Privacy Professionals