There are two potential catalysts next week that could either revive or help snuff out the tech recovery.
United States
Also in United States: Fed’s Williams says central bank has ’work to do’ to get inflation back on target
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AI investment looks like a form of stimulus Worth being 'sober minded' about inflation an Fed response Fed is failing on the inflation side of its mandate Does not want to prejudice what happens with monetary policy Plenty of room for the Fed to discuss policy options The market is pricing in 87 bps of hikes in the year ahead. That first line is the one that matters. Stimulus is a demand word. For two years the Fed’s framing on AI was about supply: productivity, capacity, a disinflationary tailwind somewhere down the road. Goolsbee is now describing it the way you’d describe a fiscal package. It’s an extension of what he’s been saying for a month. In October he said inflation was starting to feel like aggregate overheating, with data center costs spilling into the broader economy. On Monday he said the build-out increasingly resembled traditional demand overheating, the kind central bank
Kalshi: Hike 25bps — the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their Dec 2026 meeting · 89% ·
Later report: Dollar near 19-mth high on rate hike bets; yen back on intervention watch Investing.com ·
The report confirms that the US is a willing partner in yen support, not just a bystander. That raises the risk for anyone betting heavily on dollar-yen above 160, a level that now looks well defended. Positioning is likely to turn more cautious as the pair approaches the summer’s intervention zone, and volatility could spike on any further rate checks. Rate expectations still favour the dollar, though, because the US economy is resilient and inflation is high. That means intervention may only slow the yen’s slide unless the BOJ follows through with a December hike to 1.5%. --- Yesterday: Japan’s Mimura warns yen moves are too rapid as USD/JPY pushes back toward 160 --- Washington has now confirmed that it put its own money behind the yen this summer. With the currency back near 160, the main question is whether Tokyo and Washington can hold that line again. Summary: The New York Fed bou
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Polymarket: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec 31 · 6% ·
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On the map → Ukraine · Black Sea
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