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Iran and the US trade strikes in the most intense round of attacks in weeks. Iran says the US struck a wedding party killing four people including children, and retaliates with strikes on US bases in the Gulf. The US responded by denying it attacks civilians. Also in the programme: we speak to a friend of Joshua Wong, the face of Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement, who has just pleaded guilty to foreign collusion; and in football, the English Premier League transfer window breaks another spending record. (IMAGE: A view of the destroyed remains of a building which was hosting a wedding ceremony following a US airstrike, in the city of Sirak, Bandar Abbas province, southern Iran, 02 September 2026. The Iranian Red Crescent says four people, including a child, were killed when shrapnel from a US missile hit the building / CREDIT: Handout picture made available by the Iranian Red Crescent So
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to force down US Treasury yields with surprise bond buybacks — and it isn't working. In this video we break down Bessent's activist debt management strategy, why doubling the Treasury's long-dated buybacks is a bet on falling interest rates funded by short-term bills, and why his old boss Stanley Druckenmiller publicly tore the plan apart in a Wall Street Journal op-ed ("Let the Bond Market Speak"). We look at the collision with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after Jackson Hole, the 50% tariffs on Canada and the Mark Carney feud, "Operation Economic Outcast" and the secondary-sanctions problem with China and Iranian oil, the GENIUS Act and crypto's role in sanctions evasion, and Stephen Miran's case for the defense. The through-line: you can't trade around arithmetic. When a government goes to war with market prices, the bond market has a
Inflation remains high and the 2% target is farther away than it was this time last year. There are signs all over that the economy is overheating — the strange labor market where hiring and firing remains low, while GDP is growing, but mostly due to AI and the data center buildout — and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is worried about how uncertain central bankers are about what to do to cool the economy. The next shock, he tells us, could be around the corner. In this conversation, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Goolsbee explains why he is skeptical of metrics like r*, why he is embracing Kevin Warsh's philosophy around reducing forward guidance, the purpose of the new Fed task forces, and the economic indicators that influence his thinking around reaction function. See for privacy information.
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil
We are back in Jackson Hole! And this year's Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium on monetary policy might be one of the most interesting editions in years. It marks the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and Fed observers all over the world will be closely watching his Friday speech for signs of how he might further distinguish himself, and the institution he is in charge of, from the Jerome Powell era. This meeting at Jackson Hole also comes at a fascinating, and pretty tense, time for monetary policy in the US and abroad: high bond yields, above-target inflation, and AI's still unrealized effect on broader parts of the economy like the job market. As we have in the past, we speak with Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed, about what to expect and he also shares his thoughts on the wave of baby boomer retirements and how it's affecting the labor
The latest in finance, economics and investment. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney Wednesday, August 26th, 2026 Featuring: 1) Vishal Khanduja, Head of Broad Markets Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Michael Ball, Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, Jess Menton, Deputy Team Lead: Equities with Bloomberg News, react to PCE 2) Tobin Marcus, US Policy Analyst at Wolfe Research, talks economic D-Day and looking ahead to the midterms 3) Ben Cook, Portfolio Manager at Hennessy Energy Transition Fund as well as the Hennessy Midstream Fund, talks about the latest move downward in oil amid stalled Iran talks. 4) Dan Tannebaum, Global Anti-Financial Crime Practice Leader at Oliver Wyman, discusses Scott Bessent and why he's skeptical of economic D-Day. See for privacy information.
China has vowed to protect its interests after the US announced plans to widen economic sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, which include Beijing. Will China scupper the squeeze on Iran? Also in the programme: the UN and Red Cross call for urgent new laws to police fully autonomous weapons, an at-home test kit for cervical cancer. and can Australia keep AI out of music? (Photo: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a press conference to outline further sanctions against Iran,in Washington DC on 24 August 2026. Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
Iran’s currency, the rial, has hit a record low, trading at over 2 million rials to the dollar on unofficial markets. The devaluation comes a day before the United States is due to impose what US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant described as “the toughest sanctions in history” on Tehran. Iran was struggling financially even before the start of its ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, nearly six months ago. Also in the programme: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns against holding wartime elections, following repeated calls from his sacked defence minister to hold a nationwide vote; Syria’s foreign minister says he expects peace talks with Israel to resume soon; and we hear from the director of London’s Natural History Museum, where a gallery which has remained hidden from view since World War Two is about to reopen. (Photo: Iranian woman buys vegetables at a street market in
Canada's prime minister, Mark Carney, has confirmed he'll impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States next month, saying trade talks collapsed because Washington made unacceptable demands. Also on the programme, the editor-in-chief and a reporter from the US military newspaper Stars and Stripes have been fired for 'insubordination', South Korea's first container ship to trial the much shorter and safer route to Europe via the Arctic has begun its journey, and a look at the event dubbed the "Robot Olympics". Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with the news media after he suspended trade negotiations with the United States, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada August 22, 2026. REUTERS/Chris Tanouye
On the latest GoodFellows: Is economic strangulation the key to achieving Iranian cooperation, or another misstep in the Persian Gulf? Is a sequel to “Woke 1” in the works? And does playing the race card in the aftermath of a former Cambridge University professor's suicide make his death even more tragic – and distract from another tragedy: declining academic tragedy? Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today’s biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
Gianluca Benigno is a professor of economics at the University of Lausanne. Previously, he was a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and an economist at the Bank of England. Gianluca returns to the program to discuss financial r-star, the changing landscape of central bank balance sheets, the unique challenges facing the Swiss National Bank, how stablecoins could affect Treasury markets and the demand for reserves, the return of nonlinear inflation, its implications for monetary policy, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on June 22nd, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Gianluca Benigno on X: @BenignoGianluca Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch!
Timestamps: 00:00 Start 00:34 ColdCard hack 04:06 Future of Self Custody 11:14 ETF margin is easier 16:19 Stablecoins 23:16 Strategy 26:49 Strategy's game plan 29:28 Treasury companies are cooked 33:20 Strategy: when BTC becomes money 40:12 Orange Juice 44:38 Orange Juice plan 47:06 Investable verticals 51:30 Where' the new Bitcoin buyer? 56:42 BTC as store of value?
(0:00) Bestie intros! Brad Gerstner fills in for Chamath (2:16) Major shakeups at Google: AI brain drain or better strategy? (20:39) SpaceX's big quarter: Terafab, AI Capex, $1T revenue projection? (45:44) All-In Summit Speaker Announcements! (48:01) Airtable sells for a 90% discount: SaaSpocalypse? (1:05:56) Chinese AI labs are buying US training data to catch up Apply for Summit 2026: Follow Brad: Follow the besties: Follow on X: Follow on Instagram: Follow on TikTok: Follow on LinkedIn: Intro Music Credit: Intro Video Credit: Referenced in the show
US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July and hiring in the prior two months was revised lower, suggesting the labor market is weaker than previously thought after surprising strength earlier this year. Nonfarm payrolls decreased 23,000 last month following a combined 103,000 downward revision to the May and June figures, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as labor force participation continued to slide, and wage growth slowed. Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Damian Sassower break down the numbers with: Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research Chief Economist See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Just a decade ago, tinned fish was hardly a premium product. Most Americans likely associated cans of tuna with thrift. But that has changed a lot in recent years. The category took off during Covid and now shoppers are shelling out for high end brands like Fishwife. Today's guest Becca Millstein started the company in 2020, positioning it as a distinct, artisanal product, more akin to one might find in European grocery stores. In addition to the sheer challenges of scaling, the nature of the business itself has changed, influenced by climate change and geopolitics (shortages have led Morocco to suspend frozen sardine exports for instance). We discuss the tinned fish supply chain and how a new brand positions itself in today's media market. Read more: What the American Tin Can Reveals About Trump’s Volatile Tariff Policy Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newslette
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narrati
In the midst of the US-China trade conflict last year, Beijing unsheathed its fiercest weapon. By ramping up restrictions on exports of rare earth metals – crucial elements for high-tech manufacturing – China forced the US to climb down. That show of strength was a wake up call for the US. It has since spent huge sums backing mining companies, penned eye-catching deals and moved to collaborate with allies. But after a little more than a year, how much progress has it made in breaking China’s hold on the rare earths supply chain? Featuring: Abigail Hunter of the SAFE Center for Critical Minerals Strategy; Gracelin Baskaran of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Cory Combs of Trivium China; and FT commodities correspondent Camilla Hodgson. Subscribe to Soumaya's show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. Further re
Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat. Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics:
Last week, the US joined forces with Japan to try to stop the yen’s slide. It’s the first time the two sides have intervened in the Japanese currency in 15 years, and in many ways it was an unprecedented and unusual move, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent choosing to sell euros (as opposed to dollars) and the use of a little-known Federal Reserve repo facility. So why did the yen’s value drop so precipitously in the first place? And will this intervention be enough to stop it? Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains why the Bank of Japan initially refrained from raising rates, why East Asian currencies (not just the yen) have been so weak lately, the improving fiscal outlook for Japan, and what to look out for next. See for privacy information.
(0:00) Saronic founders join the show! (4:56) The Navy's first autonomous rescue in the Strait of Hormuz, and how China out builds America 230-to-1 (13:04) $3B destroyers vs. Marauder (21:25) Killing cost-plus, the new primes, and why only 1% of the budget goes to autonomy (25:55) Could 10,000 Corsairs actually lock down a 20-mile strait? (31:25) China's arming robot dogs: will our AI weapons hurt us in Taiwan? (36:33) Exclusive announcement: Port Alpha lands in Brownsville: 4000 acres, 10,000 jobs Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Creative Planning. As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/trackclk/N2598215.3565131ALLIN/B36182939.452362736;dc_trk_aid=646454825;dc_trk_cid=260464105;dc_lat=;
Jay Bhattacharya returns to GoodFellows—now as NIH director and acting CDC director—for a candid conversation on what COVID got wrong, why science needs a replication revolution, and how to restore public trust. Jay takes on the legacy of lockdowns, school closures, Fauci, gain-of-function research, China, AI-enabled biosecurity risks, vaccine questions, and the fight to make scientific dissent possible again. Then: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, AI guardrails, democratic socialism, and what Homer can still teach us about war. Subscribe to GoodFellows for clarity on today’s biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit Hi, it’s Marc. ✌️ “Waiting and seeing is not a strategy.” A senior partner and global banking lead at BCG just put a number on the thing every bank CEO is nervous about: up to 15% of bank revenue and 30% of profits at risk by 2035. But the opportunity is bigger than the threat. His name is Christian Schmid, Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, where he leads the global banking business. He is the lead author of BCG’s biggest ever digital assets report, The Future of Digital Assets. He calls the whole shift the iPhone of money, and he thinks the real fight is not stablecoins versus deposits. It is who owns the screen the customer taps. About Christian Schmid: Christian Schmid is a Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG, based in Zurich, where he leads the firm’s global commercial banking, capital markets and invest
Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 The Awesome Portfolio 04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk 11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift 14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data 17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting 20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight 22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun 27:
This is a video recording of a post I wrote last week. If you want to read the original you can check it out here . Thanks to Mercury for sponsoring this video. Mercury’s built-in AI, Command, helps me close my books and saves me a bunch of time. At the end of each month, Command categorizes my transactions and provides its rationale for every choice: I just review, fix anything that’s off, and approve... and then Mercury syncs everything to QuickBooks. Get started at mercury.com/command Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling tells us you can think of tungsten mining as “a century old prediction market for war.” As he writes in a recent piece , tungsten is “a super-element that can determine the fate of nations.” While the commercial market for tungsten is fairly small, it can be crucial in war manufacturing, due to its high density and melting point. He learned more about tungsten mining, and its increasing geopolitical necessity, during a visit to Australia's Dolphin Mine, which has a history of opening up during times of war, and then closing again during times of peace. He explains to us why investors are once again interested in tungsten mining and why it's been so hard (over the last century) to sustain production outside of China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In Episode 492 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with science fiction author, journalist, and digital rights activist Cory Doctorow—who coined the term "enshittification"—about why he believes the AI bubble will prove more damaging than the 2008 financial crisis and rival the equity sell-off of the 2020 Covid pandemic, the theory he has developed to explain why everything keeps getting worse, why the companies leading the AI boom are structurally unprofitable and existentially dependent on a runaway growth narrative, and where the value in AI may actually accrue once the bubble deflates or bursts entirely. The first hour covers the central argument of Doctorow's book on enshittification, which goes beyond simply describing how things are getting worse—from the extractive nature of online relationships to the soul-sucking experience of dealing with burned-out call-center operators
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