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Monetary Policy

Fed's Austan Goolsbee says officials must address inflation failure

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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said services inflation has accelerated beyond tariff-related effects and that the Federal Reserve must come to terms with its inflation failure.

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  1. Fed's Austan Goolsbee says officials must address inflation failure

    Report published · Retained

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said services inflation has accelerated beyond tariff-related effects and that the Federal Reserve must come to terms with its inflation failure.

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Analysis

  • Has U.S. Monetary Policy Really Improved? A 150‑Year Perspective

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York ·

    Has U.S. monetary policy actually improved over time? Or was the apparent success of the modern Federal Reserve mostly the result of more favorable economic conditions and better luck? In this post, we summarize our paper, * which develops a framework for comparing monetary policy across different economic environments. Our approach asks how close policy came to the best response given the economic conditions and shocks policymakers faced. Applying this framework to 150 years of U.S. monetary history, we find that meaningful improvements in monetary policy occurred only in the last thirty years. Most of the gains reflect, among other developments, substantially better responses to financial shocks and supply shocks.

Podcasts

  • The Macro Implications of the Blue Tsunami

    Odd Lots ·

    We don't need to tell you that the midterm elections were historic: The Democrats won bigger than even they imagined. But as the dust settles, an open question we are puzzling over is the market's ongoing reaction to this massive political sea change. Democratic control of Congress — and control over a number of formerly red statehouses, like Texas and Iowa — will influence everything from the composition of the FOMC to data center construction. And what we're seeing right now, with stocks like Tesla and SpaceX tumbling, is a direct response to these conditions. To get a better sense of this macro moment, we turn to Odd Lots regular, Employ America's executive director Skanda Amarnath to talk about how the midterms will influence the Fed's battle with inflation, Elon Musk's political instincts, and what a Democratic majority means for the market, tariffs, and AI. See Odd Lots

Prediction markets

Historical quotes retained with the package; these are not live prices.

Prediction markets:
KalshiWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
Hike 25bps: 80% · Closes · Quote captured
PolymarketWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting
81% · Closes · Quote captured

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