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Monetary Policy

San Francisco Fed finds El Niño raises a meaningful risk of higher US inflation and employment in 2027, complicating the policy outlook

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A powerful warming of Pacific waters this year — a cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño — could push US prices higher and boost employment next year, according to a new economic letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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  1. San Francisco Fed finds El Niño raises a meaningful risk of higher US inflation and employment in 2027, complicating the policy outlook

    Report published · Retained

    A powerful warming of Pacific waters this year — a cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño — could push US prices higher and boost employment next year, according to a new economic letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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