Official: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Latest Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 3.7 Percent
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on November 2, up from 3.2 percent on October 29.
Chronology
Latest Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 3.7 Percent
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on November 2, up from 3.2 percent on October 29.
Reduced historical snapshot. The full archived contents could not be verified.
Latest Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 3.7 Percent
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on November 2, up from 3.2 percent on October 29.
Reduced historical snapshot. The full archived contents could not be verified.
US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimate
Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected.
Reduced historical snapshot. The full archived contents could not be verified.
US ISM manufacturing PMI rises to 55.5 in October from 54.5, versus 54.5 consensus, reinforcing signs of faster factory-sector expansion
Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected.
Reduced historical snapshot. The full archived contents could not be verified.
Reporting
- Latest Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 3.7 Percent
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on November 2, up from 3.2 percent on October 29. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.7 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 11.1 percent. The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
- U.S. national debt reached 100% of GDP this week, and Washington yawned. Now what?
The national debt is growing at an unprecedented pace and almost nobody is prepared to stop it. - The national debt is growing at an unprecedented pace and almost nobody is prepared to stop it.
- US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimate
Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected. Prior 54.5. Prices paid: 75.2 vs 77.5 expected. Prior 77.9. Employment: 52.4 vs 52.0 expected. Prior 52.7. US manufacturing growth accelerated in October, with the Institute for Supply Management’s headline index rising to 55.5 from 54.5, beating expectations for an unchanged reading. The sector expanded (above 50.0) for the 10th consecutive month, with production reaching its highest level since November 2021. The details show stronger production and a return to inventory growth, while new orders improved only modestly. Prices paid eased more than expected but remained elevated. Employment continued to expand, although at a slightly slower pace. October components compared with September: New orders: 55.5 vs 55.3 last month. Production: 59.0 vs 56.7 last month. Employment: 52.4 vs 52.7 last month. Supplier
- U.S. Manufacturing PMI Surpasses Expectations, Boosting Economic Outlook
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