Last Updated: 14:02 GMT     Tuesday, 1 Sep. 2015 Archive About FAQ Careers Home
Banner: MacroDigest
   
    
Activity in China's factories shrinks at fastest pace in three years amid fears nation's economy further losing steam
john.duce@scmp.com / South China Morning Post
Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in three years in August, an official survey showed on Tuesday, reinforcing concerns over the health of the world's second-largest economy despite a flurry of government support measures.
Related: Editorial: China's Crackdown on Rumors Will Only Hurt Its Economy
The Editorial Board / NY Times
Jailing people won't help the broader economy or the financial markets.
Related: Why is China finding it hard to fight the markets?
David Dayen / Naked Capitalism
China's market drama started in June this year with the collapse of the Shanghai stock exchange, followed by frantic interventions by the Chinese authorities. As if the estimated $200 billion already spent on propping up stock prices were not enough, China found itself in another battle with the market, defending ...
Related: A Fact about China's Crash
Evan Soltas / Evan Soltas blog
Imagine I took all the stocks in the Shanghai index on June 11, 2015, the height of the bubble in Chinese equities, and created 50 different investment #1 would invest only in those stocks that had cumulatively performed worst since March, roughly when the boom began. Portfolio #2 would invest ...
Related: China Has Lots of Treasuries, Not Much Leverage
William Pesek / Bloomberg Views
Three reasons not to fear a big selloff of U.S. debt.
 
Moscovici says China market developments will not destabilise European economy
Reuters
PARIS, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Market developments in China will not destabilise the European economy, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said on Tuesday, adding that...
Related: France 'stuck in the doldrums' with second worst factory sector in the eurozone
Mehreen Khan / Telegraph
Manufacturers in the euro's second largest economy record another torrid August, topped only by crisis-hit Greece
Related: Wobbly euro economy may get bigger push from central bank
Associated Press
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - When is a trillion euros not enough? Could be soon, in Europe's shaky economy.
Related: Europe's oil producers hedge more, eye 'lower for longer' prices
Reuters
LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Europe's small and medium-sized oil companies have forward-sold more crude than in previous years, ramping up their defences against a scenario in which prices stay weak...
Related: French economy minister calls for full fiscal union in eurozone
Justin Huggler / Telegraph
Emmanuel Macron wants to "re-found the EU" and create a new economic government with control of its own budget
 
Challenged on Left and Right, the Fed Faces a Decision on Rates
Binyamin Appelbaum / NY Times
An approaching action on interest rates is being closely watched as a broader debate divides liberals and conservatives over the management of the American economy.
Related: Wilson: It's Pointless for Stock Investors to Fixate on Fed Liftoff Date
Guest Author / The Big Picture
It's Pointless for Stock Investors to Fixate on Fed Liftoff Date By David Wilson The timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase since 2005 may have little effect on U.S. stocks, according to Ehiwario Efeyini, a senior research analyst at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management. As ...
Related: Will the Fed Raise Rates in September? Look to the Markets for the Answer
alex / Fiscal Times
REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk Rob GarverAugust 31, 2015 The sense among a large portion of Fed watchers is that turmoil in global stock markets last week probably forestalled any action by the Federal Reserve board's Open Markets Committee to begin the process of raising interest rates from zero in the next meeting ...
 
Global equities poised for another week of turmoil after weak Chinese data
Tara Cunningham / Telegraph
Weak manufacturing data from China pushed global equities back into the red. The FTSE 100 tumbled more than 2pc in early trade - wiping £36bn off the index in one hour.
 
Oil prices drop 3 percent as investors retreat from overnight gains
Reuters
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly 3 percent in Asian trade on Tuesday, with investors covering short positions and taking profits after Brent and U.S. crude soared more than 8 percent in the previous session.
Related: Oil Sees Biggest Price Surge in 25 Years, but the Slump May Not Be Over Yet
mrainey / Fiscal Times
LUCY NICHOLSON By Robert 31, 2015 Oil futures soared on Monday for a third consecutive day, rising more than 8 percent, as a downward revision of U.S. crude production data and OPEC's readiness to talk with other producers helped extend the biggest price surge in 25 years. U.S. crude oil ...
 
Pound stumbles as UK manufacturing lurches towards stagnation
Szu Ping Chan / Telegraph
The sector is stuck in a 'holding pattern' as job losses are reported for the first time in 26 months
Related: Is the Bank of England a slave of the Fed?
FT
UK-US rate link shows impotence of monetary independence
 
Forecasting GDP in the presence of breaks: when is the past a good guide to the future?
Guest Author / The Big Picture
Forecasting GDP in the presence of breaks: when is the past a good guide to the future? George Kapetanios, Simon Price and Sophie Stone. Bank of England, 20 August 2015       Structural breaks are a major source of forecast errors, and few come larger than the recent financial ...
Related: The Clinical-Bench Science Distinction in Macro
global / Paul Romer
I had hoped to find time to offer a more thoughtful response to Simon Wren Lewis's most recent comments on the way forward in macroeconomics but life is intruding, and I now I owe a response to Ray Fair (after I look at the work that he points to.) For ...
 
IMF poised to cut growth forecasts as emerging markets face triple threat
Szu Ping Chan / Telegraph
Christine Lagarde says emerging market economies face being caught on the "wrong side" of slower growth in China, weaker commodity prices and the prospect of higher US interest rates
Expand sublinks   Also:  FX Street | FT | Great Debate
Related: Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
Marc to Market
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)EM is starting the week with a weak tone, though the panic of last week has abated for now. The bounce in commodity prices seems to have run out of steam, which isn't helping market sentiment. Fed Vice Chair Fischer's comments from ...
 
Leveraged bubbles
Òscar Jord ... / VoxEU
The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they ...
Related: Maybe This Global Slowdown Is Different
Justin Fox / Bloomberg Views
Slower population growth and consumption point to a major shift.
 
A Tale of Two Theories
Jean Pisani-Ferry / Project Syndicate
Global growth continues to disappoint, with the IMF once again downgrading its forecast for this year. Is "secular stagnation" the cause, or is the monetary stimulus being used to fight that stagnation to blame?
Related: Non-intuitive Neo-Fisherism
Noah Smith / Not Quite Noahpinion
John Cochrane has another excellent post explaining the Neo-Fisherian view of monetary policy. Some key grafs (I think "graf" means is there so little inflation now? How will a rate rise affect inflation? How can we trust models of the latter that are so wrong on the former? Well, why ...
 
India's Economy Outshines Neighbors
WSJ
India's economy expanded 7% in the April-through-June quarter, defying weakness in other parts of emerging Asia and making it one of the world's fastest-growing markets.
 
Athens Clearing Way for Gas Grid Privatization
Christopher Coats, Contributor / Forbes
The push towards the privatization of Greece's energy sector - among many - continued this week with news that Athens will likely move to approve the purchase of a substantial stake of the country's gas grid company by Azerbaijan's state-owned oil company SOCAR.
Expand sublinks   Also:  WSJ | OANDA | Telegraph | FX Street | Mish | Reuters
 
Japan factory output down in July as China demand slumps
Japan Times
Japan's factory output contracted a worse than expected 0.6 percent on-month in July, official data showed on Monday, owing to lackluster demand at home and as a slowdown in China weighs on exports. The reading published by the industry ministry was weaker than the median forecast for a modest 0.1 ...
 
Russia's Mechel signs debt restructuring deal with Gazprombank
Reuters
MOSCOW, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Russian miner Mechel has signed a debt-restructuring deal worth $1.4 billion and 33.7 billion roubles ($506.38 million) with its largest creditor, Gazprombank, the company...
Expand sublinks   Also:  Japan Times | Reuters
 
Please take our 3-minute survey!
Follow MacroDigest on Twitter  Like Us on Facebook
New
Global equities poised for another week of turmoil after weak Chinese data
Telegraph
Leveraged bubbles
VoxEU
Forecasting GDP in the presence of breaks: when is the past a good guide to the future?
The Big Picture
Pound stumbles as UK manufacturing lurches towards stagnation
Telegraph
IMF poised to cut growth forecasts as emerging markets face triple threat
Telegraph
Moscovici says China market developments will not destabilise European economy
Reuters
Oil prices drop 3 percent as investors retreat from overnight gains
Reuters
Wobbly euro economy may get bigger push from central bank
Associated Press
A Tale of Two Theories
Project Syndicate
The Clinical-Bench Science Distinction in Macro
Paul Romer
What's this?
Link: Centre for Macroeconomics
Link: Economic and Social Research Council
 
Last Updated: 14:02 GMT     Tuesday, 1 Sep. 2015 Archive About FAQ Home