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An Unconventional Truth
Nouriel Roubini / Project Syndicate
To be effective, monetary stimulus must be accompanied by temporary fiscal stimulus, which is now lacking in all major economies. That is why, given persistent insufficient aggregate demand, unconventional monetary policies will remain a central feature of the macroeconomic landscape.
Related: How negative can interest rates go?
Gavyn Davies
As global bond yields plumb new depths, an unprecedented experiment in monetary policy is underway in two small countries in Europe. By pushing policy interest rates more deeply into negative territory than ever seen before, the Swiss and Danish central banks are testing where the effective lower bound on interest ...
 
Grexit is an avoidable catastrophe
Wolfgang Munchau
Those who play down risks may be good at counting but not at grasping the dynamics of a default
Related: Syriza Walks Back Initial Defiance
Yves Smith / Naked Capitalism
Victims of austerity and their allies around the world may be placing too much hope in Syriza.
Related: Greece: The Dangerous Game
BBC
Are EU officials more anxious than they are letting on?
Related: Why I think Greece would make a success of Grexit
Telegraph
The Greek conundrum will be resolved either by a messy deal or an exit from the euro
Related: Sarkar on Greece
Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
There has been a great deal written about Greece recently. I therefore, somewhat timidly, add my penny's worth. The Syriza Party, through their PM and their finance minister, has rejected the idea of cooperating with the Troika, the EU, ECB and the IMF. They are seeking debt forgiveness to meet ...
 
Can monetary policy turn Argentina into Japan?
Michael Pettis / China Financial Markets
Monetary policy is as much about politics as it is economics. It affects the ways in which wealth is created, allocated, and retained and it determines the balance of power between providers of capital and users of capital. In January one of my readers kindly passed on to me a ...
Expand sublinks   Also:  Forbes | Naked Capitalism
 
Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
Bill McBride / Calculated Risk
For amusement, I checked out the WSJ opinion page comments on the Q4 GDP report. As usual, the WSJ opinion is pure politics - but it does bring up an excellent point (that the WSJ conveniently ignores).First, from the WSJ opinion page:The fourth quarter report means that growth for all ...
 
Dollar Drivers
Marc to Market
The bull case for the US dollar rests on two legs. The first is that the policy response to the crisis has produced superior economic results in the US that would lead to the Fed raising rates later this year. The second was the ongoing challenges faced by Europe and ...
Related: The perils of a strong US dollar
FT
The bad news is the US recovery is based on the familiar model of rising consumption
Related: And the next regional Fed presidents are...
CNBC
A U.S. Treasury official and a director at the New York Federal Reserve are among those who being considered to replace two hawkish Fed policymakers.
 
China's 'new normal' is here to stay
South China Morning Post
It seems clear that the current slowdown in China's growth rate is fundamentally different from the cyclical episodes in recent decades: the economy is likely to be morphing into a "new normal" period.
Related: Tough times for small Chinese banks faced with Basel III compliance
South China Morning Post
Efforts to raise capital and enhance risk coverage at banks across the globe are proving tough for the mainland's small commercial lenders.
 
Gross calls ECB QE 'too little, too late'
FT
Pimco founder pessimistic about Draghi's €60bn-a-month bond-buying plan
 
Russia sees 3 pct cut in GDP, rosier than others
Hurriyet
Russian gov't has estimated GDP to fall 3 percent in 2015, more optimistic than many forecasts of around a 4-5 percent drop upon an average oil price of $50 per barrel
Related: Russian Central Bank Roulette: Rubble the Ruble or the Banking System?
Craig Pirrong / Wall Street Pit
On Friday the Central Bank of Russia surprised pretty much everyone by cutting its policy interest rate from 17 percent to 15 percent. Bloomberg lays responsibility at Putin's feet, and no doubt he had to approve. But the evidence the article cites is not dispositive by any means. Yes, Central ...
 
Japan proposes tariff cuts on U.S. pork imports; TPP meeting planned
Japan Times
The Japanese government has proposed sharply cutting its tariff on a certain amount of U.S. pork over a 10-year period in talks with the United States on the Asia-Pacific free trade initiative, sources said Sunday. The 12 countries involved in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade initiative are planning to hold ...
 
India wants China to open its market to Indian companies
Times of India
Amid concerns over the widening trade deficit, India on Sunday hoped that China will open up its market to Indian companies and promised to make it easier for Chinese companies to do business in India.
Related: No change in economy's performance in last 6 months: India Inc
Times of India
Painting a dismal picture of the economy during the last six months of 2014, India Inc on Sunday said not much had changed on the ground at the industry level during the period falling within the Narendra Modi-led government's tenure.
 
Britain bids adieu to stable politics
Philip Stephens
Strong Labour or Conservative government is being replaced by European-style coalitions
 
The American shale boom warped the oil production cost curve (USO, OIL, GS)
Myles Udland / Business Insider
Here's what happened during the shale boom: it became cheap to boost oil production. By way of illustration, let's use $80 on the y-axis of the chart below as the breakeven point of reference. In 2009, production hits a breakeven price of $80 a barrel at production levels of just ...
 
Obama Budget to Seek to Stabilize Deficit and Address Income Inequality
Jonathan Weisman / NY Times
The central question President Obama will pose is this: Should Washington worry about the rising gap between the rich and everyone else, or address a mountain of debt?
 
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Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
Calculated Risk
An Unconventional Truth
Project Syndicate
Dollar Drivers
Marc to Market
Can monetary policy turn Argentina into Japan?
China Financial Markets
Obama Budget to Seek to Stabilize Deficit and Address Income Inequality
NY Times
India wants China to open its market to Indian companies
Times of India
Heng: Ties Between India and the U.S. Deepen
NY Times
Japan proposes tariff cuts on U.S. pork imports; TPP meeting planned
Japan Times
The perils of a strong US dollar
FT
Russia sees 3 pct cut in GDP, rosier than others
Hurriyet
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Link: Centre for Macroeconomics
Link: Economic and Social Research Council
 
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